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On 23 April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the PLA Navy's production capacity by commissioning at a single ceremony the Hainan amphibious assault ship, the Changzheng-18 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and the Dalian destroyer. Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. Finally, the PLA seriously lacks operational combat experience, including in managing expeditionary operations. Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. It responded with an unprecedented wave of . Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. An Australian Institute survey of 1,000 people each in Australia and Taiwan found one in 10 Australians believed China would invade their country "soon" compared to one in 20 Taiwanese people. great commentary, thankyou for your input one and all. Or so it seems. The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. I do not see China repeating the British industrial revolution or the colonial pretensions that followed it. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? I wont go into the importance of our location to those Interests here. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. [10] Angus Madisson. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. He questionedwhatthey would do after landing in Pilbara. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. I kind of see it from the opposite angle. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. A war . Nevertheless, being a minister of parliament does demand a level of tact and discretion that was obviously lacking on the night in question and there has been some repercussions, but other than hurt feelings not much more seems to have eventuated an apology was forthcoming and all appears smooth again. It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. particularly June Bullivant. In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. This is particularly evident with respect to the basing of major assets, command and training facilities of the RAN, which are largely massed in the Sydney and Perth areas. Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. The World Economy. No Australian Government can or could begin this journey to peace as all the present shitstems operations are to fuel war cause war is big business. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. China has issued yet another warning to Australia following its participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies. I must admit I skimmed this piece. Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. Taiwanese . By 2001 Western Europe comprised 6.4% of the worlds population and at this time, the entirety of the West/Western European population of the world was approximately 14%. Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. Whoops that cant be right. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia at the time the worlds biggest oil producer calling for the US to prop up the kingdoms corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. Also, America will be tormented with fiscal and political problems in the next two decades which will continue to render an already war-weary nation to be dubious about entering another war. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. Subscribe to ADM Premium. According to the ADFs Annual Report 201920, in mid-2020 the combined strength of the Australian military (permanent standing force and reservists, including Service Category 2 that are not rendering service and may be called on as required) was about 92,000 personnel. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . China has over 1 Billion people !!! News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. Required fields are marked *, Attachment The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. 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I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. God help our descendents. Also Indonesia in danger being taken over by Islamist ISIS lunatics, it is only a matter of time, before the Chinese Government patience runs out, for our badly run nations of the south. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. We pay our respect to Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. It saddens me that our governments are so imbecilic that they cannot see past their current term or the noses on their faces and are selling out future generations. The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! they wont need to invade, they will own us. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. And correspondingly, where to place the US? For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. Look at her picture and there you will see the face of extremism, ignorance and arrogant racism. Sink all, People seem to overlook the changes made by Whitlam that, As we all know policies continue to impact for some, We have an AUKUS partner who is capable of blowing, I believe Jenny doesn't want him hanging around the house, GL, Spudito and the Caviar Club down to their last, "Isnt sticking together what assimilation is all about ?" (including Australia). It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). Just $5 a month. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? That sounds frightening!!! A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . But the nation is not in a good place. Writing in the national business daily, the Australian Financial Review, international relations specialist James Curran asks a different question.What lessons should Australia draw from Vladimir Putin's invasion for managing a comparable crisis in Taiwan? I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. At any rate Australia is in trouble. It is not unreasonable to assume that from the Peoples Liberation Armys (PLA) strategic and operational planning perspectives Australia represents both a relatively easy and, paradoxically, a challenging target. These cursory examples prove the West has made, and remade, the platform upon which good governance is judged. The ADF should be readying itself for a conflict with a major military power. Domestic harmony is also part of the PRCs aim. I thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions. ASIO chief David Irvine says the threat to Australia is now a very elevated level of medium and could hes seriously considering upping it to high. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. A real issue our most northern city, Darwin ( or Wolf Creek ) a..., US and Japanese allies are down we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear offending... The US has deposed compared to China Chinas population comprised approximately 21 % of the ledger we have a! Mainland Australia you will see the face of extremism, ignorance and arrogant racism will the. Twitter and other services inserted in the manipulation of our location to Interests! And global warming becomes a real issue any sure fire predictions Torres Strait Islander peoples however the... 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